The Inflation Obsession

How about this nice little pre holiday dip with $SPX $NDX testing their various 1 month daily averages. The book says buy it at least for a quick flip through the holiday weekend. The book is a lot like ‘the book’ in blackjack. In the long run it pays off, but it doesn’t guarantee success each and every time.

Honestly, who knows what’s coming next. We’re in the midst of a full fledged propaganda drop about lowering inflation ahead of the holiday. And frankly, we need it. We’re literally trying to put the psychological jack back in the box while cranking away. So, you know, don’t be afraid to tell that person you don’t particularly like inflation is overblown.

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Energy is fun these days. SPR this, OPEC that. You know that 77 zone is the spot to watch. However this shakes out, it looks like CANADA is the winner. Here’s the long term view of CNQ.

SELL THE RUMOR, BUY THE NEWS

So. Oil just pulled back until the long talked about SPR release and then bounced. You can’t say markets aren’t hilarious.

BUT, the question is - is that what’s happening now with expensive growth stocks? Sell ‘em until the next fed action? That’s one way to look at it.

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Knife catching isn’t going so great. In fact, Zillow is trading so poorly Zillowing now means something else entirely. Look at all those spots that haven’t worked

BUT we’re all market addicts here, so let’s talk about falling knives. The biotech weakness really stands out at this point. CRSP is working on 10 down weeks in a row as it tests this long term confluence spot. When your aunt or uncle starts ranting about vaccines during dinner, pivot to genetics and tell ‘em if buying around 73-76 doesn’t work, we’re probably looking at low 30s.

Peloton is approaching that pivot zone around 37 quickly. When your cousin starts talking about their new hobby, that’s a real opportunity to gather some PTON intel. Is it a trade? Is it an own? Or is it just Zillowing?

Happy Thanksgiving!