Hey what’s happening?
First off I just wanted to say thanks again and shout out to you all for the recent love and support.
And what a day it was for the markets post inflation data. This is exactly what bulls want to see, need to see for the granddaddy of them all breadth readings to stabilize
A lot of people are wondering - is the inflation data fake?
And of course a meme says it best
The data will be whatever it is and what matters is keeping your emotions in check and your head in the game, which will only continue to get harder. And let’s not forget there’s even more inflation data Thursday.
Moving on, I had the pleasure of hopping on The Chart Report’s X space.
And we talked a lot about crypto. That could be a terrible sign as also there is some crypto IPO called Bullish coming this week.
It seems like the bigger picture in crypto is people don’t own enough with the radical shift from the Biden administration to the Trump administration.
This chart from this week’s Bank of America fund manager survey stands out. 75% of respondents said they have basically 0 crypto exposure
And there were headlines out about how people are highly exposed to equities, low on cash and all that - but then there’s equity allocation that is nowhere near any prior bull market highs. Which -S&P 500 all time highs seems like bull market territory
But we have to wonder - do these people matter? What do you think?
I mean look at some of this data, the consensus has been saying the US is overvalued and emerging markets are cheap for an entire decade.
What in the name of Harris/Walz 2024 is going on here?! I mean seriously, who are these fund managers? A bunch of Epsteins?
But back to the spaces….we talked Circle CRCL post earnings. Members know I’ve been talking about this pullback, it’s been pretty picture perfect and if it’s going to bottom, right around that recent low makes a lot of sense
Of course these characters dropped an offering after the close and it trades right there ~152 in the after hours. We’re about to find out soon if there’s still a scarcity trade in the stablecoins
Apparently today’s high is a key volume weighted average price level, which a lot of smart people follow - so if you’re looking for a momentum trigger, through Tuesday’s high is a good one.
There was a discussion on Ethereum vs Solana.
For now the data favors ETH in the intermediate term as this massive bullish divergence continues to unwind.
But there’s no reason Solana can’t be a winner too with what looks like some room up to 260ish before the first major resistance
My final crypto trade was Chainlink. This thing just won a deal with ICE, putting market data on the blockchain and it really led risk assets through the July highs as well.
We're looking for leadership like that as crypto continues to re-rate higher
Finally - JC Parets brought up the massive offsides positioning in small caps. Hedge Funds are record short
And of course the creatures that respond to the Bank of America survey have panicked out of the small caps
And if you look at Russell 2000 ETF IWM - this thing looks great long term
So we have seen enough. I think it’s time to make a call and first ever Rotation Report Price Target: IWM 325 by the end of 2026.
In honor of that I’m doing ‘The Flint Michigan Megastream’ (iykyk)on the youtube channel as we go through every single name in the Russell 2000.
Hit me up if you want to get involved. Further details coming soon
And yes, the market is now free to crash
Trade ‘em well