Context is pretty damn important.
You can easily say the market is extended. You’re damn right there are now plenty of stocks that are easy avoids. That’s the stuff the naysayers like to focus on. BUT there are also many stocks that have done nothing for 3-5-13-20 years. These aren’t zombie companies, these are real business in emerging and re-emerging themes that can succeed in a global bull market. Let’s take a look
There are a lot of industry groups that have for years done nothing. Thus, many group leading stocks have done nothing.
We talked about Agriculture in last week’s rotation report. One of the leading fertilizer stocks is CF. It was strong in front half of the 2010s and has based for 5.5 years. It’s very much an all systems go look.
You love to see multiple names in the same group suggesting the same thing. How about another fert NTR breaking this 12 year downtrend.
If the time for fertilizers is coming, well then it’s probably time for farms too, right? AGM is the Freddie Mac of Farms. No literally, they call it Farmer Mac. This 20 year chart of base-rip- continuation base is just incredible.
LNG runs the largest LNG terminal in the United States (shocker right?). After a massive 2013-14 run it’s based for six years. (disclosure: i’m long, but am not suggesting anyone should buy at this resistance)
TPCO is local newspapers in larger cities. This thing has based ever since coming out of bankruptcy in 2014. Look around, big things are afoot in the media game.
Jewelry and luxury goods aren’t going anywhere, especially in a roaring global bull market. Richemont is working out of a 6-7 year consolidation.
There are many trends working in favor of casinos whether it be sports betting or the re-opening trade. BYD which just cracked the capping line from 2004, stands out. It’s crazy extended on a 1 year basis, but again it’s all about perspective.
STKL is a health foods play. If people are losing their mind about everything else, there’s bound to be some people losing their mind over soy milk. We’ll see how strong the trend is in STKL as it tests the top of the range from 2008.
Auto parts have been secular winners and many have based for years. Here’s AAP making a run at a 5 year breakout.
Can you believe that SCHW has based for the majority of 20 years and is just now breaking to all time highs?! If you think the rise of the individual investor was a 1 year thing…ehhh maybe delete those tweets.
PII (ATVs, snowmobiles) has been coiling since 2014.
There’s a large list of names that have gone nowhere for a generation and are just starting to move. A generation! Specifically, there are plenty of names related to the electrification theme.
CREE is a chip materials play. It’s another one that sums up the market well. The theme in this group is consistent. Very stretched over a 3-9 month basis. If you look at 1 year performance you look and think there’s you can’t buy this...but holy cow in the big picture it’s not that stretched.
ON another one. The size of these bases are incredible
There’s no lack of electrical infrastructure plays that are ready to lead. Here’s WCC. 15 years of going nowhere starting to change.
PWR is another one just now breaking out of a generational range.
There’s a lot more to include but I think you get the point. The naysayers don’t care to do the work
Thanks for reading. Trade ‘em well