A Q3 Surprise

Hey what’s happening?!

Long time no talk. Hopefully you are well, hopefully you haven’t been listening to the doomers.

First off shout out and thanks to those who reached out wondering if I was ok or had gone to jail or whatever. I’m good. Just got sick of talking about markets all the time.

Of course it’s interesting that nobody ever reaches out and says ‘hey - is something wrong, why are you doing free content?’

Anyways.. the last post in April ‘the S&P 500 advance decline line says the market is going to new highs’ have been the only words that needed to be said over the past couple of months.

Think about all the noise and garbage content you’ve consumed since then saying anything different. It’s like processed food. Sure, you can eat it. But other than that doom making you feel alive for a few fleeting moments - why would you?

Of course many of those empty calories have probably been about the Fed. But who cares about the Fed? It’s a global central bank easing cycle. Roughly 80% of the lawyers and zealots are cutting and half of them just cut in the last two months.

Shout out Charlie Bilello for the great visual

So here we are to start the second half with a market at new highs, people not positioned for it and a global easing cycle. Good luck bears.

As for rates, the 30 year US Treasury 5% is an awesome reference area

As for inflation, the inflation ratio is well above the 200 day moving average for the first time in a couple of years

In the immediate term, historically it’s time for inflows to dominate the first half of July.

Inflows coming into crypto and Bitcoin? It looks fine here, some would say explosive over 110K.

Somebody has been buying the shit out of Solana around 140 the last couple of months. So I did too after that little fake breakdown on Iran war news

As for stocks, a lot of leaders have more than doubled in a straight line. So yeah, be smart about entries. No one is trying to be overly long extended stocks into the back half of July.

But more good things happened last week

The junkies are running wild like it’s Zohran’s NYC with the Junk Bond ETF JNK breaking out

How about the Networking Index clearing the tech bubble highs. There’s a lot to like there.

Shout out to the cup and handle freaks. Ubiquiti UI kinda looks like 700 with that recent low zone a good stop out area

There’s small cap CommScope COMM that just broke a big consolidation. It’s got plenty of AI growth. So let’s not act like there aren’t stocks nobody knows about with fresh breakouts.

And don’t forget about Nvidia as a networking play as the stock starts to take off like a billionaire trying to get off this rock

Meanwhile they’ll tell you RFK is ending science or whatever. Tell it to biotech Alnylam ALNY as it hits all time highs. We definitely want to look into any and all biotechs at 52 week highs

And as people ask the chatbots all sorts of dumb shit and waste endless energy, the Electric Utilities appear poised to break this base higher

By the way physical uranium just broke out two weeks ago. TWO WEEKS AGO. So yeah, nuclear is not done

And Solar is at a huge spot testing the 200 day moving average. Big picture wise it appears we’re going to need every joule we can get, and this looks like a big bottom that just needs to get the spending bill headlines in the rear view mirror

But hey don’t listen to me, I’ve already been shot on that hill 3 times.

Listen to the market instead, it’ll work out better for you

Trade 'em well